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Iran: What a mess

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Post by Arx Ferrum Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:36 pm

Just something to knock around...

The talk of Iran vs. Israel is gaining steam again. The situation is fairly simple in one respect: Israel has been pushed into a corner. There is an enemy population within its own borders that has refused every attempt at peace and a large, sophisticated and very determined enemy in Iran that has openly vowed to destroy her.

If Canada was an enemy to the US like Iran is to Israel, and openly avowed our destruction... would we allow them to develop weapons capable of that destruction without doing anything to stop them? If your neighbor had sworn to burn your house and murder your family, would you sit back and do nothing while he stocked-piled gasoline and hand grenades along your fence-line?

On the next page comes a million variables where such a scenario could light the planet in a global conflagration the likes of which has never been seen. You can't have Israel, flying American made planes, dropping American made bombs and not expect some connectivity from the guy getting bombed.

So... we're in it, by default regardless of whether Obama confesses to being Muslim or Hillary breaks down and weeps for world order in front of the UN General Assembly.

Oh, and I don't see much doubt in anyone's mind that Iran is up to building nukes. Russia had a big hand in this and his playing Papa Bear right now so that they will have a fully capable client state as the result.

What a mess.
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Post by TexasBlue Mon Nov 07, 2011 6:04 pm

It is indeed a mess. Not only all of this, you have all these states that have gotten rid of their leaders and now are moving to "Islamic" republics (Libya, Egypt, etc). Israel is surrounded by less than stellar neighbors.

I say let them do what they need to do.
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Post by dblboggie Tue Nov 08, 2011 9:33 pm

We are damned if we do, and damned if we don't.

There is no artful solution to this mess.

Not that it changes a thing, but I blame Carter for this whole damn mess. After he threw the Shah of Iran under the bus there was no way this was going to end well.

But we could spread the responsibility out a little further after Carter.

For instance, why have we not been more involved in the intelligence arena nurturing the massive underground resentment that many Iranians have for their leadership There are a lot of Iranians who hate what has happened to Iran, especially young college aged Iranians.

Why did the Obama adminstration, particularly the State Dept, remain completely silent when Iranians rose up in protest recently

Sadly, all this is now water under the bridge. Too late for subtlety, we've screwed the pooch.

Now the only fix is the unthinkable. And with a son and a nephew in the Army, the unthinkable is particularly disturbing.

Honestly, there's no way this ends well now, no matter what path is taken.
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Post by BubbleBliss Fri Nov 11, 2011 6:17 pm

dblboggie wrote:

Why did the Obama adminstration, particularly the State Dept, remain completely silent when Iranians rose up in protest recently


Because open support for the protests would have given the Iranian leadership an argument to mask the protests as American influenced and organized. That's something the Iranian leadership specializes in and it was a smart move of Obama to keep out of those protests to minimize any credibility of above named claims.

To the subject:

Israel will not survive an all out war in that part of the world. An all out war with Iran will leave Israel too vulnerable to attacks from other neighboring countries. Hezbollah will have a field day, as will the Palestinian terror groups.
Even though Israel mostly has hostile neighbors, they have not really put in any effort into trying to make peace or arrange deals with old enemies. Their response to the UNESCO decision to immediately build more settlements in Palestinian territory is not only childish but just shows Israel's inability to even remotely accept any other position than their own.
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Post by Arx Ferrum Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:06 pm

Israel will not survive an all out war in that part of the world. An all out war with Iran will leave Israel too vulnerable to attacks from other neighboring countries. Hezbollah will have a field day, as will the Palestinian terror groups.
Even though Israel mostly has hostile neighbors, they have not really put in any effort into trying to make peace or arrange deals with old enemies. Their response to the UNESCO decision to immediately build more settlements in Palestinian territory is not only childish but just shows Israel's inability to even remotely accept any other position than their own.

Israel has fought multi-front wars in the past. She's been attacked from many directions all at once before and managed to defend herself. But even so, there will be no escaping this war, for the US or much of NATO, should it come.

Even if western nations denounce an attack on Iran, it will be US made planes that drop the US made bombs. There will be German made submarines sinking Iranian shipping and launching cruise missiles. There will be French and British made armaments all across the field under the Star of David. Israel is... I guess in at least one sense, the child of the west following WW2. There was a horrible realization of the Holocaust and more than a subtle effort to support a Jewish homeland. (Let's not forget that prior to 1948, the Jews were the ones fighting the guerrilla war.)

Israel would probably suffer massive casualties but so would any nation who directly joined the fray. Syria is already shaky with domestic upheaval, Egypt is less than resettled to whatever course she will eventually take, Iraq is in no condition to fight anyone and Lebanon would simply reduce to civil war if either Christian or Muslim leadership made a move to get involved. But all of this being as it is, the US and the rest of NATO would hardly be exempt because of those facts mentioned above. We will be all be de-factorially involved from the moment the first shot is fired.



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Post by dblboggie Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:54 pm

Very well put Mike! And quite true to boot.
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Post by BubbleBliss Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:08 pm


I think this multi-front war would be different. Iran is a major player in the region and a full frontal attack of it would be devastating, especially with a nuclear missile. Even if Iran just used its proxies in the region, Israel will have to be extremely careful not to leave any border the slightest bit unprotected.

I think the US would have to get involved militarily whereas Europe and the rest of the West will most likely stay out of it since it is not an immediate threat to them...
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Post by TexasBlue Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:43 pm

It might not be an immediate threat to you guys over there but then again, neither is it to us. The problem here is the wide ranging effect it will have on the world as a whole. It will be a big deal if Iran succeeds or gets close or if military action needs to be taken.

The difference between Iran, Pakistan or even N. Korea is that the latter two haven't made any crazy declaration. NK has bristled it's feathers but is in no shape to do anything other than talk shit. Iran has pledged to wipe Israel off the map. The other problem with that is how many Arabs is that going to take with them? Nuke fallout is ranging.

This is bigger than people want to acknowledge.
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Post by BubbleBliss Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:46 pm


True, it's not an immediate threat, but the Israeli/Jewish lobby in the US is very powerful and they won't let Israel go down unprotected....
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Post by TexasBlue Sun Nov 13, 2011 5:36 pm

No, they won't. But any nation within a thousand miles of the ME had best be concerned.
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Post by Arx Ferrum Sun Nov 13, 2011 8:16 pm

BubbleBliss wrote:
I think this multi-front war would be different. Iran is a major player in the region and a full frontal attack of it would be devastating, especially with a nuclear missile.

Impossible... unless Iran IS indeed lying about a weapons program, no?
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Post by BubbleBliss Mon Nov 14, 2011 6:15 am


I believe Iran is indeed working on a nuclear missile, if they don't have one already.
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Post by Arx Ferrum Mon Nov 14, 2011 9:21 am

BubbleBliss wrote:
I believe Iran is indeed working on a nuclear missile, if they don't have one already.

Then that reduces the subject to academic politics because... once you remove any partisan political thrust, there are very few things left in the picnic basket.

1. Iran has openly vowed to destroy the Jewish state of Israel.
2. Iran either has or will soon have nuclear weapons.

Israel either waits to be attacked or makes an effort to thwart as much of the threat as possible. There is no third option and no way to avert war short of Iran suddenly having a change of heart and deciding to devote itself to something besides genocide.

I must confess that I do recognize the very real possibility that Iran is goading Israel into such an action. It takes the weight of any genocide off of them and Islam and places on Israel and the Jews because, well, they attacked first, right? Iran knows that any country as geographically small as Israel has no chance of withstanding a nuclear attack so, they leave them no choice.

It's all very clever and well considered. It is also horribly mad, unethical, sinful, hateful... even for that region. They've painted Israel into a corner, bludgeoned them with a global propaganda campaign that has demonized them in certain political polarities and now simply sit back and wait for the only course of action left to them.

It is genius but also, about as definitively evil as anything history has to offer. Even Hitler and National Socialist Germany would have a hard time competing.

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Post by BubbleBliss Mon Nov 14, 2011 3:29 pm


I agree. Israel has little choice here. They should do their best in trying to get right with their neighbors as well as other big players of the region such as Turkey and especially Egypt. Taking a step towards friendship with those two nations would go a long way since their relations are pretty shattered right now. If the US was to send military help to Israel, they'd need a jump off point in the region. FOr this, Turkey or Egypt would be perfect, but if Turkey and Egypt deny the US this right because of their relations with Israel, it will be tricky for the US to intervene.
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Post by Arx Ferrum Mon Nov 14, 2011 4:41 pm

BubbleBliss wrote:
I agree. Israel has little choice here. They should do their best in trying to get right with their neighbors as well as other big players of the region such as Turkey and especially Egypt. Taking a step towards friendship with those two nations would go a long way since their relations are pretty shattered right now. If the US was to send military help to Israel, they'd need a jump off point in the region. FOr this, Turkey or Egypt would be perfect, but if Turkey and Egypt deny the US this right because of their relations with Israel, it will be tricky for the US to intervene.

And therein lies the rub because to make friendly with Egypt and/or Turkey, in any meaningful way, Israel would have to relent to Hamas, if not even Hizbollah. The current Israeli government will not do this because they would see it as opening a door to a potential enemy within the borders of Israel itself, at the very moment when hostilities with Iran could erupt. So again, catch-22 and no way out.

So long as China and Russia cover Iran in the UN, this course will continue. It is not anything so hard to deduce so we must assume that both of these nations are openly willing to accept the strategic conflict risk of a wider war. My guess is that both feel confident that NATO is no longer the machine it was during the Cold War... and that between the economic strife Europe and the collapse of America's industrial plant, there won't be a full throw-weight effort to save Israel.

To be absolutely honest, I am really surprised that Israel has not already acted. I fully expected it to happen just about this time last year. Once it does, I expect nations like Pakistan and Syria to jump in headlong almost right away. As time progresses, it's easy to conceive of a untied Islamic army being built around Iran and then marching on Jerusalem before turning on the moderates like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Egypt. If this should happen the the whole of the middle east falls to a radical Islamic movement, there seems little doubt the Europe will be in their cross-hairs.

At this point, all bets are off because by then, the US will be up to its armpits in the Pacific with China (and N. Korea?) and Europe will be in political turmoil similar to France before and during the sitzkrieg.

Wow, what a nightmare.

This looks like a cup that, regrettably, shall not likely pass.



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Post by TexasBlue Mon Nov 14, 2011 5:34 pm

Nightmare is right. No matter how it cuts, it's shit.
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Post by Arx Ferrum Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:49 pm

I guess I needed a refresher course. I spent the overnight hours watching and reading about the birth of Israel, how the Jews were once the people without the homeland and how things then are not so different than today.

The UN division of Palestine/Israel between the Jews and Arabs was almost immediately disregarded by both sides. The Jews had villages outside the areas given to them that they would not surrender and the Arabs would not give an inch of their own lands. It was basically a civil war, the the British acting as a blockade force to keep Jews from Europe from coming. Refugee ships were boarded and rerouted to Cyprus, just as they are today.

Damned odd how history does repeat.

Further on, there are records of the Jews and Arabs killing each other all the way back to the Roman reconquest after the Jewish revolt 2,000 years ago. The best I can find says that the official name change from Israel to Palestine came from that Roman assault and occupation.

They've been killing each other ever since.
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Post by TexasBlue Tue Nov 15, 2011 3:26 pm

There is no Palestine nor was there ever.
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Post by Arx Ferrum Tue Nov 15, 2011 3:42 pm

TexasBlue wrote:There is no Palestine nor was there ever.

Old native American Indian saying goes something like, 'your land is mine because you wrote your name on it'.

In this case, Israel clearly has the definitive claim to that area but... so do the Cherokees to much of North Carolina and Tennessee. It creates a very good bit of contrast if you can overlay the one situation with the other. You gain a small perspective into the hearts and minds of those who are not otherwise available for an easy sharing moment, from either case.

This isn't a political moment... more a Kodak one. The world is full of things like this that we generally miss.

I can be pro Israel and still see the Palestinian point. There will have to be a peace someday by some means or this will go on for another thousand, two thousand years.
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Post by TexasBlue Tue Nov 15, 2011 4:23 pm

I can see the Palestinian point of view even while disagreeing with many things about it. The Jews have a historical claim even with religion being taken out of the equation.
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Post by BubbleBliss Tue Nov 15, 2011 5:02 pm

TexasBlue wrote:There is no Palestine nor was there ever.

Saying there's no Palestine is like saying there's no Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, or other countries like them. Palestine was a recognized area during the Ottoman Empire, it was just ruled by the Ottoman Empire... just like Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands are today.

TexasBlue wrote:The Jews have a historical claim even with religion being taken out of the equation.

As do native Americans have a claim to a lot of American property. The Jewish and Arab wars go way back, just like Arx said, but eventually, many of the Jews left and emigrated to Europe. After WWII, a new homeland was created for the Jews in territory they had previously given up or lost in battle. So it would be pretty much like Europe coming over to the US and just drawing up the old borders of the Native American lands and kicking all non-native Americans out. I wonder what the reaction would be to that...

Of course the Jews deserved a new homeland after their suffering in WWII, but I always ask myself, whether current Israel was such a good trade... I mean you only have hostile neighbors, the Israeli population lives in constant fear of terrorist attacks, every man and woman HAS to serve in the army because of Israel's circumstances. Obviously, I can't tell whether it's worth it or not as I am not Jewish and don't live in Israel, but I still wonder....
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Post by TexasBlue Tue Nov 15, 2011 5:09 pm

BubbleBliss wrote:Saying there's no Palestine is like saying there's no Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, or other countries like them. Palestine was a recognized area during the Ottoman Empire, it was just ruled by the Ottoman Empire... just like Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands are today.

Palestine was never a country. One day it will be.
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Post by BubbleBliss Wed Nov 16, 2011 2:18 am


Texas was never a country, that doesn't change the fact that it exists...
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Post by TexasBlue Wed Nov 16, 2011 5:24 am

You're splitting hairs again. Texas was a country from 1836 till 1845 when it joined the United States.

Palestine was never a nation. Israel was. Let's stick to that.
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Post by BubbleBliss Wed Nov 16, 2011 12:35 pm


Oh yeah, I forgot that Texas was a country back in the day.

What I don't understand is how it matters that Israel was a nation and Palestine wasn't. The Israelis left their homeland whereas the Palestinians stayed.
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