Obama looks increasingly likely to lose. What then?

No More Years

Obama looks increasingly likely to lose. What then?

Pete Du Pont
Wall Street Journal
Oct. 21, 2011

Just two years ago it seemed highly unlikely that Barack Obama would turn out to be a one-term president. But looking at voters' frustrations with our continuing economic problems and the growth of federal government intrusiveness during Mr. Obama's first term, more and more commentators are saying this may actually come to pass. Of course a lot can happen over a year, and we should never underestimate the power of incumbency (or the benefit Democratic presidents have with the press). The question is whether, even with these advantages, the president can possibly win re-election without significant good news on the economic front. The other question is: If Obama does lose, what will the new Republicans in the White House and, presumably, Congress do, and what should they do?

The current polls are not encouraging for the president. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows him trailing a generic Republican by 6%. Gallup shows the generic Republican up by 8%, and the ABC News/Washington Post poll finds 11% more disapprove than approve of the president. Rasmussen has strong presidential approval at 19% and strong disapproval at 41%. The RealClearPolitics average last week shows just 17% think our nation is on the right track, and 76% think it is on the wrong-track. Rasmussen also reports that just 16% of likely voters think the country is headed in the right direction, down 16 points from last year.

Now comes an Investors Business Daily/TIPP survey showing, according to IBD, that a "majority of Americans now oppose giving President Obama a second term, and that by 51%-41% respondents in October picking 'someone new deserves a chance,' over Obama 'deserves to be re-elected.' Among independents it was 54%-36%".

And it gets worse. The current ABC News/Washington Post polling finds that 55% of American people believe a Republican will win the election, and 37% that Obama will win. Democrats expect to win by 58% to 33% percent, while Republicans believe they will win 83% to 13%. By 54% to 36%, independents think a Republican will beat Mr. Obama.

Nile Gardiner of London's Daily Telegraph reports that Gallup polling shows "little confidence among the public that the administration's big government approach is going to succeed in creating jobs and getting the economy back on its feet." Fifty-six percent of Americans are very dissatisfied with the ways things are going in our country. Only 11% are satisfied and 1% very satisfied.

In addition there are numerous presidential prediction models and most of them are heavily influenced by the economy in the period leading up to the elections. With our country's current economic weakness and little hope for material improvement in the upcoming year, it is doubtful that these models will provide much comfort for the White House.

More important is to think through what America's public policies will be if Republicans control the White House, the Senate and House come January 2013. Simply put, if Republicans win they will reduce federal spending--hopefully back to where it was as a percentage of GDP in the 15 years before 2009. One may also hope they will balance the budget and scale back the intrusiveness of the federal government. Already Congress has made progress in expanding free trade, having just approved new trade agreements with Colombia, Panama and South Korea. Most important are the reduction of unemployment back to 4% or 5% and repeal of the Dodd-Frank law, which is estimated to cost America 4.6 million jobs by 2015. Rolling back the regulation of energy is also needed to unleash our potential.

Add in the repeal of ObamaCare, and we would move away from government intrusion and regulation of health care, allowing us to make the changes necessary to give people more individual choices, give Medicare enrollees more flexibility and choice, and provide more flexibility to our states in handling Medicaid.

We need to reform the tax code, too—reduce deductions and credits and put in place lower tax rates for everyone, which will help get the economy going forward again. Everything from Herman Cain's 9-9-9 tax reform plan to the president's own Erskine-Bowles commission recommendations has recognized the folly of our current tax system and the wisdom of lower rates and a broader tax base.

As Mr. Gardiner concluded in his article, the Obama administration "is a presidency in crisis, lacking leadership, wedded to the wrong policies, and presently heading for defeat in 2012." Time will tell, but as the polls show Americans becoming more frustrated by the consequences of Obama's policies, that conclusion seems just about right.

Even before Obama was inagurated, I knew he would prove to be a bad president on the order of a Carter.

But from almost day one, I began wishing that he would only be as bad at Carter, but it was evident early on that he would make Carter look like Reagan.

In all the history of our republic, only one president even approaches a hostility toward the private sector that Obama has shown... and that was FDR.

Obama makes FDR look like a piker.

This man has placed the hobnailed boot of government so firmly on the neck of the private sector that there is no chance of an economic recovery until he is gone.

The nearly trillion dollar "stimulus" was nothing more than a giant slush fund to realize Democrats pork barrel wet dreams and did NOTHING to to stimulate the private sector economy.

His health care "reform" was nothing more than a massive new tax and regulatory burden on the private sector, while vastly expanding government power over the health care industry - and adding scores of new bureaucracies and government employess to suck off the private sectors teat.

As noted above, quite apart from creating massive new costs to consumers, Dodd-Frank will cost our economy millions of jobs lost!

And just imagine, that's only the tip of the jobs killing iceburg that Obama set out to accomplish! There was also cap-and-trade and card-check that he wanted to pass, the cancellation of Bush tax cuts he wanted, the direct increase of corporate income taxes, and a host of other assaults on the private sector.

Obama is either absolutely clueless about how a free market capitalist economy works, or knows and doesn't care because he hates capitalism and wishes to destroy and suplant it with a system he clearly has more affinity for, seeing as how he has been surrounded by Marxists, communists, and socialist his entire life.

Either way it doesn't matter, if we want to see this country survive this century, Obama MUST be sent packing next year.

Your asnalysis is indisputable. If anyone wants to take a shake and dispute it.... go.

He knows what he's doing up there. So do his advisors.

The worst administration in my lifetime.

1) Obama
2) Carter
3) Bush (or Nixon)

The curious thing is that Obama even got elected once. That is the single and most compelling reason to connect the Carter presidency to Obama's... that they are reactionary in nature, not a natural movement in voter sentiment. We got single-term change, not long term. They were elected because the people were tired of what was, not because they wanted what came to be.

I am fairly certain that... with the right person running against Mr. Obama in 2012, we will see a repeat of the 1980 election and hopefully, the rebirth of our nation's pride and gumption once again as well.

Of course, there are certain things that could play out in the next 12 months to trash this entire schematic... but they would... almost by definition, be near-tragedies and not anything that would enhance the current administration based on its record to date.

Obama was elected on the anti-Bush sentiment. He played right into it and did a hell of a job exploiting that. Many people didn't do their homework on this guy. If they had, he wouldn't be president.

Yeah, the GOP had best put up the best that they can. If they fail and nominate Michele Bachmann, we're in for another 4 years of misery.

I fail to see how Obama can win again otherwise. Even a moderate Repub like Romney will smoke this guy.

I see a bigger landslide than in 1984 against Mondale.

I read an interesting article today, and in my advancing senility, I've forgotten where. But the article posited an entirely different reason for Obama's election.

The author noted that Obama's inexperience was something that was no secret. Enough people were aware that Obama had much less than a year in the chair in federal office.

Despite that they voted for the schlub. The author blamed, and I can't recall the exact words, but ignorance comes closest, of the electorate. How else does one explain electing a guy who never had an honest job in his life

Of course, there is the fact that the 48% of voters pay no taxes and in fact get money back, were likely pulling like hell for him.

My uncle and me argued over his inexperience along with Palin. He sided with Obama. He's now a remorseful buyer.

Somebody needs to build a 'Custom Candidate' thread so we can all assemble our perfect presidential personality from the digital scratch...

That's a great idea! I'll start.

I'd like a candidate with the charisma, presence and speaking ability of Reagan. The willingness to say "fuck you" to the MSM and opponents when appropriate ala Christie. The candidate would have the slash and burn approach to federal government of a Ron Paul, with the national defense instincts of Reagan, the willingness to act of Bush, and the knowledge of history to temper it of Gingrich.

I'd also want a candidate to have the economic wisdom of Thomas Sowell, and the boldness for fundamental change of a Herman Cain (back when he was proposing the Fair Tax).

That's a start.

^^^^^ What he said.